With that storyline as the backdrop, Fullerton is in a must win situation
against the UCSB Gauchos (17-21, 7-5) at Goodwin Field this weekend if the
Titans are going to keep their hopes alive to win the Big West championship for
the fourth straight season.
LINEUP
UCSB hasn't played well on the road, going 6-10 away from Caesar Uyesaka
Stadium and hadn't won a series on the road this season before taking 2 of 3 at
Northridge last weekend. A factor in that problem has been the offense, which
has averaged about 5 runs per game on the road, about 2.5 runs per game less
than at home. However, UCSB's offense has been much more productive recently
both on the road and in Big West conference games.
UCSB struggled to score runs earlier this year with a pretty inexperienced
lineup but has score five runs or more in eleven straight conference games,
including the final two games at Riverside and all three games against Irvine.
After only hitting 14 HR's in their first 26 games, UCSB has hit 13 HR's in 12
conf games. UCSB plays in a hitters park (UCSB's ballpark faces away from the
ocean so the wind blows balls out) and their offensive philosophy reflects that.
The Gauchos swing away more often than they play little ball with bunting/moving
runners over and stealing bases. UCSB only had 26 SAC bunts on the season before
having 5 SAC bunts in the final two games of the Northridge series (both were
one run games). UCSB has stolen 39 bases on the season (8 in 12 conf games).
UCSB doesn't walk much except for their #3 and #4 hitters, Robbie Blauer and
Mike Zuanich, but make contact and put the ball in play (fewest K's in the
conference). The only LH hitters in the lineup for UCSB are leadoff hitter Chris Fox and Blauer, which plays to Fullerton's advantage because all three SP's for
the Titans are RHP's.
C - Chris McMurray (RH - .287 - 1 - 15 - 6) has started almost every game and
is a decent hitter who usually bats 6th and has good speed for a C (2nd on the
team in SB's) but his real value to the team is on defense. McMurray is one of
the better defensive C's in the conference both at blocking pitches (UCSB has
allowed only 20 WP's - best in the conference - and McMurray hasn't allowed a PB)
and at throwing out baserunners (31-56 SB's). McMurray was 3-9 in last year's
Fullerton series.
1B - Robbie Blauer (LH - .394 - 4 - 32 - 1) hits 3rd and is one of the best
hitters in the conference, currently ranking 2nd in the Big West in batting
average. Blauer leads the team with 32 RBI's and a .545 SLG %, is a very patient
hitter (30 BB's) and has an outstanding .495 OBP. Blauer also is very good at
making contact and has only 8 K's for the season. Much like with Jaime Pedroza
last weekend, Blauer is the player that the Fullerton coaches will pitch around
when they can and won't let beat them. He is also solid defensively. Blauer was
4-12 in last year's series with Fullerton.
2B - Matt Valaika (RH - .239 - 3 - 22 - 2) usually bats 8th and has struggled
offensively in his FR season, although he did hit a big HR last Sunday at
Northridge. Valaika is in the lineup for his glove and has been very solid
defensively, making only 4 E's. The Fullerton coaches are hoping he doesn't wear
out the pitching staff like his older brother Chris did last year at UCSB.
SS - Shane Carlson (RH - .220 - 0 - 13 - 1) usually bats 9th and has
struggled offensively this year after hitting .286 last year. Carlson has also
struggled defensively in switching from 3B to SS, making 13 E's. Carlson was 3-9
in last year's series.
3B - Patrick Rose (RH - .287 - 2 - 10 - 4) wasn't playing much earlier this
year but has become a regular during conference play and has been one of better
hitters for UCSB, hitting .360 and usually batting 2nd. Decent defensively (5
E's).
LF - Mike Zuanich (RH - .317 - 3 - 30 - 1) bats cleanup and has had plenty of
opportunities recently to drive in runs with the way the first three hitters in
the lineup have been getting on base. He has also heated up during conference
play, hitting .336. Patient hitter (20 BB's) who is one of the few UCSB hitters
with a relatively high strike out rate (26 K's).
CF - Chris Fox (LH - .331 - 3 - 21 - 13) is the leadoff hitter and the
primary SB threat in the lineup. He is also a good bunter (5 SAC's) who uses his
speed to get on base. Fox is another UCSB hitter who has gotten hot during
conference play, hitting .373. Very good range in CF.
RF - Mario Lewis (RH - .277 - 6 - 24 - 5) usually bats 7th and has the
interesting combination of leading UCSB in both HR's with 6 and SAC bunts with
7. Lewis is yet another hitter who has been much better during conference play,
because 5 of his HR's have come in the last 12 games. He is 2nd on the team with
26 K's. Lewis will often be replaced defensively in late innings by Brian Gump (LH
- .243 - 0 - 6 - 3). Lewis was 5-10 in last year's series with Fullerton.
DH - Cody Dee (RH - .324 - 2 - 17 - 1) usually bats 5th and only recently
became a regular in the lineup after being a part-time player in non-conf games.
Matt Anderson (.264 - 2 - 11 - 0) is the backup C and DH, has been getting a
decent amount of AB's and might get a start in one of the games.
PITCHING
UCSB has the worst pitching numbers of the six teams that are in the race for
the Big West championship, allowing opponents to hit .302 for the season and
having a team ERA of 5.44. UCSB also ranks near the bottom of the conference
standings in walks allowed (175) and HR's allowed (31). In conference games, it
has been more of the same with opponents hitting for a .301 average with 13 HR's
and a team ERA of 5.84. UCSB has allowed 5+ runs in 9 of 12 conference games.
However, with the way that UCSB has been scoring, the SP's have been doing just
enough in allowing four runs or less seven times to win each of those games.
FRI SP - Chuck Huggins (LHP - 6-1, 4.44 ERA, 17 apps, 7 starts, 51 IP, 40
H's, 40 BB's, 40 K's, .223 BA) has been UCSB's most effective starter, throwing
six shutout innings against P'dine and also shutting out Riverside for six
innings (only allowing one hit) before tiring in the 7th inning. As a starter,
Huggins has averaged almost 6 IP per start (40 IP, 30 BB, 28 K, 4.95 ERA) and he
is 3-1 in conference games, although his ERA is 6.26. The key for Fullerton with
a pitcher who has been this tough to hit but this wild is to obviously be
disciplined, take walks and work the pitch count, something that the team didn't
do much of at Riverside. Huggins has also been prone to allowing HR's, giving up
a team high 7 HR's. Runners have done well against Huggins (9-13 SB's). Because
Huggins has been tough on LH hitters, expect Fullerton to go with more RH
hitters in the lineup.
SAT SP - Mike Ford (RHP - 2-1, 5.66 ERA, 13 apps, 9 starts, 56 IP, 60 H's, 27
BB's, 46 K's, .287 BA) is the hardest thrower of the three SP's. Ford has been
ok in his past two starts, allowing 4 R's to both Irvine and Northridge but that
was good enough to keep UCSB in both games and split 6-5 games. Ford was bombed
in his prior two starts by Pacific and Riverside, allowing 14 R's in 11 IP.
Ford's ERA in conf. games is 7.50 and he is allowing batters to hit .347 in
those games. He has done a solid job of holding baserunners (5-9 SB's).
SUN SP - Jeff Braun (LHP - 2-6, 6.14 ERA, 14 apps, 9 starts, 59 IP, 72 H's,
23 BB's, 34 K's, .310 BA) pitched very poorly during non-conf games and pitched
his way out of the rotation for a while. However, during conf games it has been
a different story. Braun has been UCSB's best SP the past few weeks, going 2-1
with a 3.97 ERA in three starts plus a relief appearance at Riverside during
conference play. Last year, Braun pitched well against Fullerton (6 IP, 2 R's)
and had a 3.11 ERA in 9 starts, 7 of those in conf games. He has solid control,
keeps the ball down (14 of 18 outs last year against Fullerton were groundouts
or K's) and holds runners very well (5-12 SB's).
Relievers - UCSB relies heavily on sidearming closer Justin Segal (RHP - 1-3,
3.79, 7 saves, 36 IP, 38 H's, 6 BB's, 31 K's, .279 BA), who has already made 25
appearances (including 8 in 12 conf games) and is UCSB's career leader for
appearances. Segal was 2nd team all Big West last year. He has good control (19
BB's in 90 IP over the last two years) and is a ground ball specialist who is
tough on RH hitters. Segal has no problem throwing 2-3 innings at a time. After
Segal, it is kind of a crapshoot in the bullpen but whoever comes in before
Segal would be a RHP because the only LHP's on the staff are Huggins and Braun.
Steve Morlock (RHP - 3-5, 4.38 ERA, 1 save, 10 apps, 8 starts, 49 IP, 70 H's,
13 BB's, 27 K's) was a starter in '04 and '05 before missing '06 with an arm
injury. He was a starter this year before missing time with another injury and
didn't make an appearance until last weekend, when he pitched in relief on Sat
and Sun. The other relief options are likely to be Kyle Brown (RHP - 1-1, 5.87
ERA, 16 apps, 15 IP, 19 H's, 5 BB's, 13 K's, .306 BA), who has appeared in 6 of
12 conf games; Matt Wade (RHP - 1-0, 7.80 ERA, 1 save, 15 IP, 25 H's, 6 BB's, 8
K's, .379 BA); Justin Aspregen (RHP - 0-0, 8.53 ERA, 13 apps, 13 IP, 11 H's, 17
BB's, 14 K's, .239 BA), a hard thrower with control issues; and Bryan Tracy (RHP
- 1-2, 4.24 ERA, 13 apps, 6 starts, 40 IP, 44 H's, 28 BB's, 23 K's, .293 BA),
who has also struggled with his control and pitched his way out of the rotation.
OUTLOOK
Fullerton's offense had been productive in scoring 6+ runs in 12 of 16 games
prior to last week. However, the Titans were only able to manage 9 runs in 4
games last week as the bats have gone cold. Although the numbers say that
Fullerton's hitters should be able to get well against UCSB, this is a tricky
spot for Fullerton because the Gauchos have been playing well in conference and
even in both of the series that they lost to Riverside and Irvine, each series
came down to a one run game that was decided in the 9th inning. Going into
conference play, this series looked like it would be a sweep for Fullerton with
the way that UCSB was playing after going 10-16 during their non-conference
schedule. Now, this series looks like a much closer matchup. One thing that is
in Fullerton's favor is the pitching depth. The staff ERA for Wes Roemer, Jeff
Kaplan and the relievers over the last six weekend series has been 2.15 (the ERA
for the Sunday starters is 6.66 during that time) so the Fullerton coaching
staff should be able to find somebody to be effective in the Sunday SP role.
Another thing that is in Fullerton's favor is where the series is being played -
Goodwin Field. UCSB has been swept in their last two series at Fullerton and the
Gauchos have been a poor road team this year, failing to get their first series
win until last weekend. Fullerton should be able to win at least two games this
weekend but it won't be easy the way these two teams are currently playing.